How to Analyze Competitors in Public Procurement: Data, Metrics, Solutions

In public procurement, almost everything is known in advance: who has already supplied this customer, at what price, by how much they reduced their bids, and how often they won. This data is public — available in the contract registry and procedural protocols. The question is whether the company looks at this information before submitting a bid or learns the results afterward. We will explore how to analyze competitors practically and what conclusions can be drawn from it.

What You Need to Know About Competitors

A useful analysis is not a “list of companies in the industry,” but answers to four questions regarding a specific procurement:

• Who usually participates in the procurements of this customer and in this product category;
• How deeply they reduce — the typical percentage decrease from the initial price;
• Who wins and with what frequency — is there a “favorite” for this customer;
• How they fulfill contracts — were there terminations, fines, or entries into the registry of unscrupulous suppliers.

Where to Get Data

1. Contract Registry. The main source: who bought what, from whom, and for how much. It shows both the supplier’s history and the customer’s preferences.
2. Procedural Protocols. Show the composition of participants, submitted price proposals, and reasons for rejections — including those of competitors.
3. Customer’s Procurement Plans. Provide a timeline: what the customer intends to buy in the coming months.
4. Registry of Unscrupulous Suppliers. Eliminates some competitors from the race: if the customer has set a requirement for absence in the registry, companies listed there cannot participate.
5. Arbitration Case Files. Disputes between suppliers and customers — indicators of both the supplier’s practices and the risks associated with the customer.

Three Metrics to Consider

Average Percentage Reduction

Take the last 10–20 procurements in your category and calculate the percentage reduction from the initial maximum contract price (NMC). This is your benchmark: if the niche consistently sees reductions of 15%, and you expect to win with a reduction of 3%, participation is meaningless.

Concentration of Wins

How many suppliers share the customer’s contracts. One winner in 80% of procedures is a signal: either they have unique conditions, or the documentation is tailored to them. Five or six different winners indicate an open market with opportunities.

Your Win Rate by Segments

Track your own statistics separately by customers, regions, and categories. It often turns out that 80% of wins come from a narrow segment — and that’s where efforts should be focused, rather than spreading thin across the entire spectrum.

How to Use Analysis Before Submission

• Decision to Participate or Not. If historically in this niche bids fall below your cost price — do not participate; this saves money and time.
• Price Selection. The reduction benchmark plus your own economics provide a corridor: up to what price it makes sense to negotiate. Don’t forget about anti-dumping consequences — see analysis of bid and contract security.
• Customer Evaluation. Frequent terminations, payment delays, and legal disputes — reasons to factor risk into the price or to withdraw.
• Finding Your Customers. Analysis reveals not only competitors but also organizations that regularly purchase your product and where winner rotation is high.

Common Analysis Mistakes

• Focusing Only on Price. Winning is not always about the lowest price: in tenders and procurements under 223-FZ (Federal Law on Procurement for State and Municipal Needs), qualifications and experience also matter.
• Taking Too Short a Period. Three procurements are not statistically significant. The minimum should be a year or 15–20 procedures.
• Ignoring Failed Procedures. A procurement without bids is a signal: either the conditions are unachievable, or there is no competition, allowing entry with minimal reduction.
• Analyzing After Submission. The value of analysis lies in decision-making before submission, not in explaining why you lost.

How to Streamline This Process

Manual analysis for each procedure is unrealistic: one procurement takes at least half an hour. Therefore, it makes sense for data to be collected automatically and come with the procurement card — the customer’s history, the composition of regular participants, typical reductions, and an assessment of the chances of winning at a given price.

This is precisely how Atlas Procurement works: the system collects procedures from the Unified Information System (EIS) and commercial platforms, pulls the history of the customer and competitors from the contract registry, and shows the price benchmark even before you start preparing your bid. Check your niche →

Related topics: the difference between 44-FZ and 223-FZ for suppliers, why bids are rejected, how not to miss your tender.